RISK SCORING METHODOLOGY
AegisWatch uses a proprietary Escalation Risk Score algorithm combining severity, temporal decay, and proximity to produce real-time threat assessments for every monitored disaster event.
Escalation Risk Score (0-100)
Every disaster event in AegisWatch receives a dynamic Escalation Risk Score from 0 to 100. The score is calculated in real-time and changes as conditions evolve:
Base Severity
Derived from the source severity rating (1-5 scale). Each severity level contributes 8 points to the score.
Temporal Decay
Uses exponential decay (e^(-0.04×hours)) to reduce the score as events age. Recent events score higher.
Proximity
Maximum 30 points within 10km radius, with exponential decay (e^(-0.003×(distance-10))) beyond. Uses Haversine formula for precise Earth-surface distances.
Trajectory Prediction
AegisWatch Pro includes AI-powered trajectory analysis for directional hazards such as wildfires and cyclones. The system analyzes atmospheric conditions, topography, and historical patterns to project future hazard movement and identify critical infrastructure in the projected path.
Infrastructure impact analysis cross-references predicted trajectories with known infrastructure databases to alert users about threatened roads, bridges, power lines, and population centers.
Community Verification System
AegisWatch uses a crowd-sourced intelligence verification model. Ground observers can submit field photos and comments for any active event. Other users can then confirm or deny these reports, building a confidence score for ground-truth intelligence.
This verification layer adds human intelligence (HUMINT) on top of satellite and sensor data (SIGINT), providing a more complete operational picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does AegisWatch calculate risk scores?+
AegisWatch calculates risk scores (0-100) using three weighted components: Base Severity (up to 40 points from source severity 1-5), Temporal Decay (up to 30 points using exponential decay over time), and Proximity (up to 30 points based on distance from the user). This produces an Escalation Risk Score that reflects real-time threat levels.
What data sources does AegisWatch use for disaster monitoring?+
AegisWatch aggregates data from four authoritative sources: GDACS (Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System), Copernicus EMS (Emergency Management Service), NASA EONET (Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker), and USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) for seismic data.
How often is AegisWatch disaster data updated?+
AegisWatch receives data updates continuously from all four source agencies. Events are typically detected within minutes of source agency publication. Risk scores are recalculated in real-time as temporal and proximity factors change.
Does AegisWatch provide trajectory predictions for disasters?+
Yes. AegisWatch Pro subscribers receive AI-powered trajectory predictions for applicable hazard types including wildfires and cyclones. These predictions are based on analysis of atmospheric conditions, terrain data, and historical event patterns.
How does AegisWatch verify crowd-sourced evidence?+
AegisWatch uses a community verification system where users can confirm or deny reports. Each piece of crowd-sourced evidence (comments, photos) goes through community validation where multiple observers can corroborate information, increasing the confidence level of ground-truth reports.